The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Please note that we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.
Latest estimate: 2.8 percent -- April 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on April 15, up from 2.4 percent on April 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, increases in nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.9 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 3.4 percent, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.24 percentage points to -0.15 percentage points.
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an “advance” (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymakers have the Fed Board staff projection of this “advance” estimate at their disposal. These projections—available through 2008 at the Philadelphia Fed’s Real Time Data Center—have generally been more accurate than forecasts from simple statistical models. As stated by economists Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright in a 2009 paper, “by mirroring key elements of the data construction machinery of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Fed staff forms a relatively precise estimate of what BEA will announce for the previous quarter’s GDP even before it is announced.”
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
The BEA’s advance estimates of the subcomponents of GDP use publicly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. Much of this data is displayed in the BEA’s Key Source Data and Assumptions table that accompanies the “advance” GDP estimate. GDPNow relates these source data to their corresponding GDP subcomponents using a “bridge equation” approach similar to the one described in a Minneapolis Fed study by Preston J. Miller and Daniel M. Chin. Whenever the monthly source data is not available, the missing values are forecasted using econometric techniques similar to those described in papers by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson and Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, and David Small. A detailed description of the data sources and methods used in the GDPNow model is provided in an accompanying Atlanta Fed working paper.
As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
Is GDPNow an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Bank's president?
No, it is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
Is any judgment used to adjust the forecasts?
No. Once the GDPNow model begins forecasting GDP growth for a particular quarter, the code will not be adjusted until after the "advance" estimate. If we improve the model over time, we will roll out changes right after the "advance" estimate so that forecasts for the subsequent quarter use a fixed methodology for their entire evolution.
When will nowcasts of GDP growth in a particular quarter begin and end?
GDPNow nowcasts of real GDP growth in a particular quarter begin about 90 days before the "advance" estimate for GDP growth for the quarter is released; they end on the last business day with a data release GDPNow utilizes that precedes the release date of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) advance estimate of GDP growth. Except after annual benchmark or comprehensive revisions of GDP typically occurring in late July, GDPNow nowcasts for a quarter generally begin on the weekday after the advance estimate of GDP growth for the previous quarter is released. After comprehensive or benchmark GDP revisions, the initial GDPNow nowcast for the subsequent quarter can be delayed for around a week until the BEA releases revised “underlying detail tables” for the National Income and Product Accounts.
For example, GDPNow’s initial nowcast of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 took place on Monday, January 29, 2018, the first weekday after Friday, January 26, 2018, when the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 was released. The final GDPNow nowcast of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 was made on April 26, 2018, and the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 was released on April 27, 2018.
How can I access historical forecasts from the GDPNow model?
These forecasts are available in this downloadable spreadsheet. See the tab "ReadMe" in the spreadsheet for hyperlinks to the historical forecasts and other data for the model. In particular, the tab "TrackingDeepArchives" has forecasts for the 2011:Q3–2014:Q1 period (before the model went live), the tab "TrackingArchives" has forecasts from 2014:Q2 through the last quarter for which an advance estimate of GDP has been released by the BEA, and the tab "TrackRecord" has a comparison of the historical GDPNow model forecasts with the actual "advance" real GDP growth estimates from the BEA.
Where can I read about the methods and source data used in the model?
A detailed description is given in a working paper describing the model. To summarize, the BEA's NIPA Handbook provides very detailed documentation on both the source data and methods used for estimating the subcomponents of GDP. The late Nobel Prize–winning economist Lawrence Klein pioneered many of the "bridge equation" methods used for making short-run forecasts of GDP growth using this source data; a 1989 paper he coauthored with E. Sojo describes the approach. Kathleen Navin, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, provides a bird's-eye view illustrating how to use a bridge equation approach in practice to improve GDP forecasts in this 2017 presentation. The econometric techniques used in our GDPNow model were heavily adapted from the GDP nowcasting models described in a 1996 Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review article by Preston J. Miller and Daniel M. Chin and a 2008 paper by the Board's David Small and economists Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin.
How accurate are the GDPNow forecasts? Are they more accurate than "professional" forecasts?
The chart below shows GDPNow's real-time forecasts made just prior to the release of the initial estimate of the annualized growth rate of real GDP along with the initial estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Since we started tracking GDP growth with versions of this model in 2011, the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0.83 percentage points. The root-mean-squared error of the forecasts is 1.23 percentage points. These accuracy measures cover initial estimates for 2011:Q3–2022:Q2. Some further analysis of GDPNow's forecast errors is available in macroblog posts located here and here. We have made some improvements to the model from its earlier versions, and the model forecasts have become more accurate over time (the complete track record is here). When back-testing with revised data, the root mean-squared error of the model's out-of sample forecast with the same data coverage that an analyst would have just before the "advance" estimate is 1.15 percentage points for the 2000:Q1–2013:Q4 period. The figure below shows how the forecasts become more accurate as the interval between the date the forecast is made and the forthcoming GDP release date narrows.
Overall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. The model does appear to fare well compared to other conventional statistical models.
How are revisions to data not yet reflected in the latest GDP release handled?
In general, the model does not attempt to anticipate how data releases after the latest GDP report will affect the revisions made in the forthcoming GDP release. The exception is the "change in private inventories" subcomponent, where revisions to the prior quarter's reading affect GDP growth in the current quarter. Users of the GDPNow forecast should generally use the forecasts of the change in "net exports" and the change in the "change in private inventories," and not forecasts of the levels. Revisions to retail sales are used to anticipate revisions to real monthly expenditures in the "PCE control group" and revisions to housing starts are used to anticipate revisions in the monthly value of private residential construction spending put in place.
Do you share your code?
At this point, no. However, the Excel spreadsheet gives the numerical details—including the raw data and model parameters—of how the monthly data map into forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP.
What are the differences between GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast models? Why do the two models have different forecasts?
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow also uses a dynamic factor model—based on a model from one of the New York Fed economists who coauthored the Liberty Street blog entry—but uses the factor only as an input to fill in the yet-to-be-released monthly source data for GDP. The estimates of this dynamic factor are available in the Factor tab of this Excel file.
The monthly source data are then used to estimate the subcomponents of GDP, which are then aggregated up to a real GDP growth nowcast. Besides a dynamic factor model, GDPNow uses several other econometric techniques, including "bridge equations" and Bayesian vector autoregressions, to nowcast the subcomponents of GDP. The exact methods are described in this working paper. The numerical details—including the raw data and model parameters—translating the monthly data into nowcasts of the subcomponents of GDP in the latest GDPNow forecast are available in this Excel file (see the ReadMe tab).
Because GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast are different models, they can generate different forecasts of real GDP growth. Our policy is not to comment on or interpret any differences between the forecasts of these two models.
These charts show how the forecasted GDP subcomponent contributions to growth aggregate up to GDPNow's real GDP growth forecast for each update day in a particular forecast quarter and how changes in the subcomponent contribution forecasts aggregate up to changes in the GDP growth forecasts. Whenever a user hovers the cursor over a bar in one of the charts, the pop-up box displays the data releases for the date of the bar as well the numerical values for the GDP growth forecast and either the levels or changes in the subcomponent contribution forecasts. For previously reported quarters, the final date in the top chart shows the official first estimates of real GDP growth and the subcomponent contributions to growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The final date in the bottom chart shows the forecast errors of the final GDPNow projections of the BEA's first estimates of real GDP growth and the subcomponent contributions to growth.
Release times shown are from the original source. The GDPNow model is usually updated within a few hours following these times. Release schedule subject to change.
Release
Date of release
Time of release
Final nowcast of 2023: Q3 GDP growth: New-home sales
10/25/2023
10:00 AM
Initial nowcast of 2023: Q4 GDP growth: Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
10/27/2023
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
11/1/2023
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
11/7/2023
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
11/8/2023
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Producer Price Index
11/15/2023
10:00 AM
Housing starts
11/17/2023
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
11/22/2023
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Gross Domestic Product (11/29), Advance Economic Indicators (11/29)
11/30/2023
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
12/1/2023
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
12/6/2023
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
12/7/2023
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Import and export prices
12/14/2023
10:00 AM
Housing starts
12/19/2023
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, New-home sales, Gross Domestic Product (12/21)
12/22/2023
10:00 AM
Construction spending
1/2/2024
10:00 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index
1/3/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
1/9/2024
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
1/10/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Import and export prices
1/17/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
1/18/2024
8:30 AM
Final nowcast of 2023: Q4 GDP growth: Existing-home sales
1/19/2024
10:00 AM
Initial nowcast of 2024: Q1 GDP growth: Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
1/26/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
2/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
2/7/2024
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
2/8/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Import and export prices
2/15/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts, Producer Price Index
2/16/2024
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
2/27/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Gross Domestic Product (2/28), Advance Economic Indicators (2/28)
2/29/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
3/1/2024
10:00 AM
Wholesale trade
3/6/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
3/7/2024
8:30 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Producer Price Index
3/14/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
3/19/2024
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
3/26/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Economic Indicators, Gross Domestic Product (3/28)
3/29/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
4/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
4/4/2023
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade, Consumer Price Index
4/10/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories
4/15/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts, Industrial production and capacity utilization
4/16/2024
9:15 AM
Final nowcast of 2024: Q1 GDP growth: Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
4/24/2024
8:30 AM
Initial nowcast of 2024: Q2 GDP growth: Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
4/26/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
5/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report), M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report)
5/2/2024
10:00 AM
Wholesale trade
5/8/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Consumer Price Index
5/15/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Import and export prices
5/16/2024
9:15 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
5/24/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Gross Domestic Product (5/30), Advance Economic Indicators (5/30)
5/31/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
6/3/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
6/6/2024
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade, Employment situation
6/7/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization
6/18/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
6/20/2024
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), Gross Domestic Product, Advance Economic Indicators
6/27/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
6/28/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
7/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report), M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report), ISM Services
7/3/2024
10:00 AM
Wholesale trade
7/10/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Import and export prices
7/16/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts, Industrial production and capacity utilization
7/17/2024
9:15 AM
Final nowcast of 2024: Q2 GDP growth: New-home sales
7/24/2024
10:00 AM
Initial nowcast of 2024: Q3 GDP growth: Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
7/26/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
8/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
8/6/2024
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
8/8/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Import and export prices
8/15/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
8/16/2024
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
8/26/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Economic Indicators (8/29), Gross Domestic Product (8/29)
8/30/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
9/3/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report), M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report)
9/4/2024
10:00 AM
Wholesale trade
9/9/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization
9/17/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
9/18/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Economic Indicators, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1, 9/26), Gross Domestic Product (9/26)**
9/27/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
10/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
10/8/2024
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
10/9/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization
10/17/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
10/18/2024
8:30 AM
Final nowcast of 2024: Q3 GDP growth: Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1)
10/25/2024
8:30 AM
Initial nowcast of 2024: Q4 GDP growth: Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables
10/31/2024
8:30 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending, Employment situation
11/1/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report), ISM Services
11/5/2024
10:00 AM
Wholesale trade
11/7/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Import and export prices
11/15/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
11/19/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), Gross Domestic Product, Advance Economic Indicators
11/27/2024
10:00 AM
ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending
12/2/2024
10:00 AM
International trade (Full report)
12/5/2024
8:30 AM
Wholesale trade
12/9/2024
10:00 AM
Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization
12/17/2024
10:00 AM
Housing starts
12/18/2024
8:30 AM
Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, Gross Domestic Product (12/19), Existing-home sales (12/19)
12/20/2024
8:30 AM
Advance Census manufacturing (M3-1), New-home sales
*Time of last economic release; GDPNow update typically released 2 to 3.5 hours after this time.
**Timing of 9/27 GDPNow updates depends on details regarding 2024 annual revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. Further details to be determined/announced.
